Cod

Some stocks are suffering, but the Alaska fishery and Barents and Bering seas are in good shape

At first glance, the news about the bread-and-butter fish of the global groundfish industry seems a little grim.

North of the border, traditionally the largest source of supply for the U.S. market, Canada’s cod fishery remains in sad shape, even after fishing on the big northern cod stock has been mostly prohibited for more than 10 years.

Further out in the Atlantic, Iceland is nervously eyeing its cod stocks, as biologists worry they haven’t recovered as well as previously thought. As a result, next year’s quota could be reduced below this year’s level of about 170,000 metric tons.

On the other side of the Atlantic, cod stocks in the North Sea appear to be in dire straits. Catches have been slashed by 50 percent and the European Union says, “Stocks are on the verge of collapse.”

Closer to home, a federal judge took over management of the New England groundfish fishery after environmental groups successfully argued that the National Marine Fisheries Service wasn’t cutting cod catches fast enough to allow stocks to recover.

But while the cod coverage in the press seems bleaker than ever, buyers really don’t need to worry.

Buried beneath the headlines is the fact that the world’s two largest cod fisheries — the Barents and Bering seas fisheries — are in pretty good shape. The Barents Sea cod fishery, the largest in the world, should produce about 400,000 metric tons of fish again this year.

Meanwhile, the Alaska cod fishery remains in excellent shape. Catches should come in at about 230,000 metric tons, about the same level as in the past three years.

So relax: There will still be enough cod, whether it’s destined for the fryer as fish and chips or for use in more upscale white-tablecloth venues.   

Supply outlook

A last-minute reprieve by the federal judge responsible for sorting New England’s embattled groundfish crisis means that catches in 2002 could actually end up higher than last year.

Since 1999, when landings fell below 10,000 metric tons for the first time since NMFS has been keeping records, New England cod catches have been slowly bouncing back after almost a decade of conservation. After hitting about 15,000 metric tons last year, catches could be about the same this year.

While New England processors would certainly like more fish, it’s still another step in the right direction. After this year, though, there’s a good chance catches could head downward again, as NMFS is forced to reduce all groundfish landings to protect the weakest stocks.

Alaska fishermen had landed almost 70 percent of their quota by the first half of this year, which means they could once again fail to catch the full quota of about 245,000 metric tons, as fishing is typically much slower in the fall, when cod are dispersed.

Cod imports were up about 13 percent through the first five months of 2002, to 27,400 metric tons. Iceland remained the largest single supplier with exports to the United States of about 7,500 metric tons, more than 90 percent of which was frozen fillets, followed by Canada (6,400 metric tons) and China (5,500 metric tons).

The cod outlook for 2003 is a lot like that for 2002, although supplies will probably be off slightly due to a weakening U.S. dollar, which could lead to more Icelandic cod being exported to Europe.

Price trends   

Although prices have increased from the lows of last fall, cod is a very good buy, with supplies adequate to meet the existing demand.

The price to distributors for small shore-frozen Alaska cod fillets increased from a low last year of about $2 a pound to $2.20 a pound this summer, while large fillets increased from $2.30 to $2.40.

Large Canadian cod shatters jumped from a low last year of $2.40 to $2.70 a pound this summer. At the top end of the cod scale, importers were selling Icelandic and Norwegian FAS shatterpacks for $2.90 to $3.15 a pound,  f.o.b. East Coast, depending on size.

 The price of fresh cod fillets followed its typical seasonal pattern this winter, when lower landings sent prices up from last fall’s level of about $3.50 a pound to nearly $4.30 a pound. With so many questions surrounding the New England fishery, however, average prices were still at $4 a pound this June and July, when a slug of fish normally sends prices down to about $3.

With the price of small H&G Alaska cod running 80 cents to $1 a pound, New England processors were offering refreshed fillets at $2.25 to $2.50 a pound. Look for prices on frozen cod to move higher in 2003, as the strengthening euro will allow cod-starved European buyers to pay more for fish.

Fresh fillet prices will also probably stay in the $3.50 to $4.50 a pound range in 2003, as it is a good bet that restrictions could lead to some cuts in groundfish landings by New England fishermen.  

Buying tips

If you’re trying frozen Alaska cod fillets for the first time, don’t be surprised if you notice more moisture loss. It’s typical for “P-cod” to lose 10 to 12 percent of its weight after it’s thawed, one reason it sells for less than Atlantic cod.

Most refreshers make up for this moisture loss by soaking their fillets in tripolyphosphate. If fresh prices get too high in the winter, think hard about switching to frozen FAS fillets from Iceland or Norway. The quality of this fish is excellent, and it runs about $1 a pound less than fresh prices in the winter. Merchandise it simply as Icelandic or Norwegian cod, and your customers won’t care if it’s fresh or frozen.

Culinary notes

Versatile, snow white, flaky — what more need be said about cod? It fits the bill, no matter how you cook it. But don’t try grilling it! This is a fish you can dress up and menu for $20 a plate like they do at New York’s Le Bernardin, where Pan Roasted Codfish with Sweet Roasted Garlic Sauce and Chorizo Essence is a menu staple. Then again, you can dress it down like they do at The Exit Restaurant in Birch May, Mich., where $8.50 gets you all the fried cod you can eat on Friday nights.

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